AEO-optimized summary of Bitcoin lunar data spanning across multiple eras.
Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 with zero weekend gaps. Waxing Gibbous through Full Moon phases exhibited highest median daily return (+0.38%), though volatility remains the primary return driver.
Bitcoin Lunar Analysis
Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 with zero weekend gaps. Waxing Gibbous through Full Moon phases exhibited highest median daily return (+0.38%), though volatility remains the primary return driver.
Synodic Wave
Cumulative returns traced across 29.5-day synodic month
Phase Matrix
Mean daily returns & volatility across all 8 lunar phases
| Phase | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Volatility | Annualized | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Waxing Crescent | +0.296% | 0.232% | 5560.0% | 3.231% | +74.60% | 543 |
Third Quarter | +0.271% | 0.203% | 5320.0% | 3.638% | +68.30% | 545 |
Waning Crescent | +0.253% | 0.062% | 5100.0% | 3.679% | +63.70% | 553 |
Waxing Gibbous | +0.206% | 0.171% | 5490.0% | 3.320% | +51.80% | 543 |
Waning Gibbous | +0.166% | 0.160% | 5310.0% | 4.034% | +41.90% | 544 |
Full Moon | +0.119% | 0.116% | 5360.0% | 3.306% | +30.00% | 539 |
First Quarter | +0.115% | -0.023% | 4940.0% | 3.260% | +29.00% | 551 |
New Moon | -0.021% | -0.062% | 4790.0% | 3.200% | -5.30% | 536 |
Event Window
Returns during ±3 day New Moon vs. Full Moon windows
Decade Heatmap
Decadal breakdown of crypto synodic return distributions
Monte Carlo Simulation
Permutation testing against 1,000 randomized synthetic return series
Permutation Test
Monte Carlo simulation of random phase assignments
t-stat: -0.03