A data-driven observatory analyzing the intersection of lunar cycles and global financial behavior.
This project examines historical market data for the S&P 500, Bitcoin, Gold, and Nasdaq across the 29.5-day synodic wave. We utilize empirical permutation tests and confounder controls to investigate the behavioral finance phenomenon known as the lunar effect.
Market Tides
What 49,642 trading days reveal about the Moon and markets.
Does the Moon move markets?
Researchers from Kellogg, Michigan, and Yale have documented a persistent anomaly: stock returns are measurably higher around the New Moon than the Full Moon. Yuan, Zheng & Zhu (2006) found the effect across 48 countries. Dichev & Janes (2001) traced it back to 1896. The effect is small — fractions of a basis point per day — but it survives calendar controls, transaction costs, and a century of data.
This observatory presents the raw evidence. You decide what it means.
Synodic Return Wave
Cumulative daily return across the 29.5-day lunar cycle
Deep Dives
Individual asset analysis with full statistical breakdowns
S&P 500
+0.0290%
Across 24,000+ trading days since 1928, New Moon windows exhibited higher annualized returns (+8.4%) compared to Full Moon windows (+4.1%). However, statistical significance degraded after 2000 as algorithmic trading expanded.
Bitcoin
-0.1400%
Bitcoin trades 24/7/365 with zero weekend gaps. Waxing Gibbous through Full Moon phases exhibited highest median daily return (+0.38%), though volatility remains the primary return driver.
Gold (COMEX)
-0.0020%
Gold returns exhibit lower correlation to lunar phase than equities, acting as an anchor asset. Minor return compression is observed during Supermoon (Perigee) weeks.
Nasdaq Composite
-0.0250%
As a high-beta growth index, Nasdaq amplifies the lunar return spread during parabolic market cycles (e.g. 1998-2000 and 2020-2021), confirming sentiment sensitivity.
Phase-by-Phase Breakdown
Mean daily returns across 8 lunar phases for S&P 500
| Phase | Avg Return | Median | Win Rate | Volatility | Annualized | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Moon | +0.068% | 0.074% | 5360.0% | 1.170% | +17.00% | 3038 |
Third Quarter | +0.043% | 0.071% | 5380.0% | 1.163% | +10.90% | 3168 |
Full Moon | +0.039% | 0.063% | 5280.0% | 1.235% | +9.80% | 2993 |
First Quarter | +0.037% | 0.031% | 5140.0% | 1.196% | +9.30% | 3171 |
Waxing Crescent | +0.026% | 0.028% | 5170.0% | 1.133% | +6.70% | 3119 |
Waxing Gibbous | +0.020% | 0.047% | 5250.0% | 1.185% | +5.10% | 3108 |
Waning Crescent | +0.014% | 0.055% | 5240.0% | 1.266% | +3.50% | 3112 |
Waning Gibbous | +0.007% | 0.030% | 5150.0% | 1.179% | +1.70% | 3065 |
Market Tides & Behavioral Finance Knowledge Graph
Hierarchical inquiry tree with atomic answers and peer-reviewed academic citations.
Market Tides & Behavioral Finance Anomalies
Empirical market research across 48 countries reveals a persistent anomaly where daily stock returns are systematically higher around the New Moon than the Full Moon. This return spread survives standard calendar controls including day-of-week, turn-of-the-month, and January effects across a century of historical trading data.
This research is strictly observational and presented for educational purposes only. The "lunar effect" in behavioral finance is an anomaly — not a predictive tool. Historical patterns do not imply causation or predict future performance. This does not constitute financial advice.